There is no commodity or asset class that only goes up and up. There are always corrections and pull backs. Today proved the point. Gold prices dipped more than 2.5% after China announced a 0.25% interest rake hike pushing the dollar index up…the biggest daily uptick for the reserve currency in several weeks.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said yesterday the U.S. would not devalue the dollar and would work to “preserve confidence” in it. Both the unexpected news from China’s central bank and Geithner’s comments gave the flagging dollar support and pushed the buck higher against most major currencies. That in turn weighed on commodities, which have been supported most recently by the sharp dollar weakness.
Even so, some forecasters see this dollar strength as short lived.
Alan Bush, senior financial analyst at Archer Financial Services, said “We expect the greenback to resume its downtrend, at least until the Federal Reserve formally announces the widely anticipated second quantitative easing program.”
“Anytime anyone talks about raising rates, you’ll see gold and silver tumble.” said Mike Daly, gold and silver specialist at PFGBest in Chicago. Comex gold prices ended sharply lower Wednesday. December Comex gold last traded down $36.00 an ounce at $1,336.10. Spot gold was last quoted down $34.00 at $1,336.00.
Gold will continue to go up…and down. But for the long term (3-10 years), all indicators say gold is on an upward march. How much higher will gold go? Time will tell.
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